It is fought between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) which exercises control over the Tigray Regional Government, and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) aided by the Ethiopian Federal Police, regional state police with also the involvement of the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF). War crimes have been committed by both sides during the conflict.

Humanitarian crisis

The impact of the crisis isn’t fully known due to communication blackouts in large parts of the region and the lack of access to some areas, especially rural ones. Wafaa Said, the deputy humanitarian coordinator for Ethiopia, says that the UN’s humanitarian partners continue to receive corroborated reports of targeted civilian killings, gender-based violence, forced displacement, restricted movements of civilians, and extensive looting of civilian property.

As the conflict is still ongoing, no one can be sure about numerical data, but Ethiopia’s government says that at least 52,000 people had been killed; women are objects to rape; women, men, and children are crossing the border at the rate of 4,000 per day since 10 November according to the UN statement; and the proportion of children affected by malnutrition “greatly exceeds the emergency threshold of 15%”, according to Wafaa Said.
He also emphasizes that 82% of the 229 health centers in Tigray are not functioning, or do not support any communication. As BBC provides, nearly 70% of health facilities in Ethiopia’s northern region have been vandalized and equipment looted.

Humanitarian response

Among other entities, the ICRC provides humanitarian help in response to the humanitarian emergency: it protects detainees, restores family links, provides physical rehabilitation, and works closely with the Ethiopian Red Cross.

On the 30th of March International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies made an appeal which reflects the funding requirement of 27 million Swiss Francs, comprising support and funding to be channeled to the Ethiopian Red Cross Society, Djibouti Red Crescent Society, and Sudanese Red Crescent Society (SRCS) to deliver humanitarian assistance to and support the early recovery of some 660,000 people in Ethiopia, Sudan, and in Djibouti, affected by disasters of the Tigray crisis.

Peace process

Since the explosion of the conflict, several proposals for peace negotiations and mediation were made from the international community as well as from the main groups involved in the war. The negotiations between East African heads of government conducted on 20 December 2020 in Djibouti resulted in a statement of support for the Ethiopian constitutional order and humanitarian access to the Tigray Region.

On 19 February 2021, the TPLF expressed its wish for peace negotiations and declared specific preconditions. Soon after, three Tigran parties published similar demands, among which the withdrawal of the EDF, the demand for Transitional Government to be replaced by the elected administration, the request for an international investigative body to analyze the war crimes, and the demand for mediation by an independent international body.

On 8 March 2021, Ethiopian president Sahle-Work Zewde visited Kenya for discussions with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta. It might be a result of the occurred pressure from the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling on the African Union to exert pressure over the worsening crisis in Ethiopia’s Tigray.

International response

The fact that since the conflict broke out the access to journalists was very limited, and communications are largely cut off, even with health facilities, makes highly complicated the humanitarian response to the crisis. The international response is still limited, however, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) announced last Thursday that the UN will investigate grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions and international humanitarian law, such as the starvation of civilians and collective punishment.

It is important to note that it is first and foremost the responsibility of the government of Ethiopia to ensure its citizens are shielded from violence and provided life-saving assistance. However, Abiy’s administration has not delivered on its promises to facilitate aid delivery. For example, in December 2020 the UN and Ethiopia’s Ministry of Peace agreed to establish aid access via a humanitarian corridor, but the access failed to improve.

Relief Web, the largest humanitarian information portal in the world, provides specific recommendations to be accomplished by the international community to end the disaster. Among others are to ensure immediate humanitarian access, to call on Eritrea to remove its troops from Tigray, to facilitate the independent investigation of reported cases of atrocities and human rights abuse, and to appoint a Special Envoy to oversee diplomatic efforts on the Tigray crisis.

As the situation is worsening exponentially, the international community must not be reluctant based on the previous failures, such as in Somalia and Yugoslavia. Respect for Human rights is a common responsibility and must be ensured from the outside when it is so crucially needed.

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Indian changes its suppliers

In response, some state-run refiners turned to other markets in an attempt to maintain the supply-demand equilibrium. For instance, Indian state-run refiners including Indian Oil Corp, have stated that they are planning to cut purchases from Saudi Arabia in May and buy more from the US and on the spot market.
According to Reuters, OPEC’s share of India’s oil imports fell to 78.3% in 2019/20, which constituted the lowest level in at least 19 years. New Delhi has repeatedly called for OPEC+ to pump more crude to stop prices from rising too high, but it has caused no particular reaction other than the opposite.

As data suggests, the purchases from Saudi Arabia dropped 36% in January month on month, while U.S. imports more than doubled. The low-sulfur American oil has processing advantages over the heavier and more sour Middle Eastern varieties. Bloomberg reported earlier that Indian state-run refiners planned to cut purchases from the kingdom by a quarter to about 10.8 million barrels in May.

Benefits for other markets

The shift highlights how other producers profit from the OPEC’s cuts as consumption gradually returns in markets like India, which is the world’s third-largest oil market. The US producers are not the only beneficiary, but also Nigeria, for instance, as it has witnessed an increasing demand in its production. A country’s priorities in terms of suppliers also depend on the kind of resource needed.

Shifts in needs

As people give preference to private vehicles amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the overall demand for diesel is recovering. But in India, the demand for diesel has not yet shown a significant increase, while the demand for gasoline and liquid petroleum gas for cooking has surged compared to 2020. Leave aside the jet fuel consumption which is still half of what it was two years ago as most international routes remain shut.

Consequently, the demand by preferences shapes where India is sourcing its barrels. The Middle East oil tends to yield more diesel, while crude from Africa and the U.S. produce more LPG and gasoline. Practically, the crude imports from Nigeria in December 2020 jumped 68% from the previous year, while U.S. oil purchases surged almost 77%, according to government data. As a result, the US becomes India’s second-biggest oil supplier, whilst Saudi plunges to the fourth spot.

Future of oil

The pandemic has destroyed almost a third of global oil demand, hitting the oil sector already at the peak of its crisis. Big oil companies lost billions of dollars in 2020 because of the pandemic and face multiple questions about how to adapt to climate change and regulations.

Assuming that once the pandemic is over and the economy will recover, oil demand will come back. But the fact that the world takes action on climate change suggests that oil demand sooner or later will start going down, in fact, it might have peaked already.

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Having built the road, China would hugely benefit from new shipping roots and consequent trade expansion. However, behind the rush is also another hope. As the global temperature rises and ice melts, in a few decades or sooner the region can be used for fossil fuel exploration and extraction. And for such a highly dependent on various oil, gas, and mineral resources economy, this is a vital opportunity.

Origins of the initiative

Back in 2018, China’s State Council Information Office made an official release of the country’s first Arctic White Paper. The document was originally released in both, Mandarin and English, introducing China’s position clear for the domestic as well as the foreign audiences.

Reasoning as a “near-Arctic state”, the White Paper justifies China’s interest and a potential role in the region. As an analysis suggests, China’s interests in the Arctic can be narrowed down to two categories.

On the one hand, China is involved in scientific research, resource exploration and exploitation, shipping, security, and other activities. On the other hand, climate change and its consequences are expected to affect the whole world, and China is not an exception. Therefore, being rightfully concerned in the Arctic affairs, China proposed incorporating the Arctic into its “Belt and Road” Initiative by encouraging joint efforts to construct the “Polar Silk Road”.

China has made quite clear its position and intentions in the White paper as well as giving public speeches afterward. Firstly, China promises not to “overstep” its role as a non-Arctic state and not intervene in the “domestic” affairs of Arctic nations. Secondly, China insists on being “absent” and underlines a strong desire to participate in cross-regional and global issues concerning the Arctic. It also became an observer member of the Arctic Council back in 2013.

Trade between China and Europe

Being tailored to connect Asia with Europe, the polar Silk Road initiative suggests the importance of the route for China-to-Europe. Indeed, for European countries, both exports to and imports from China have been gradually increasing since 2009 up to date. According to Eurostat, the main European trading partner as of December 2019 was China, accounting for €363 billion in imports. In 2020, export amounted to €202.5 billion while imports increased by 5.6% up to €383.5 billion.

Interestingly, the overall picture of European trade in 2020 is quite aggravating, first of all, due to the pandemic. The trade relations dropped dramatically with the rest of the world: down 9.4% YoY in terms of exports, and down 11.6% YoY in terms of imports.

It is important to note that the Chinese overall exports rose 3.6% in 2020 despite the pandemic; in fact, it’s the only major economy with positive trade growth. The Polar Silk Road project is beneficial for Chinese trade, as it would reduce distances for global trade between Europe and Asia.

While the Polar Silk Road could significantly benefit the global trade relations in terms of decreasing the distance, it remains frozen for most of the year. Even if it will change over time, in perspective “here and now” the route is hard to traverse and more challenging than the other two Arctic shipping routes currently available, the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage. However, the expansion is perceived to have strategic purposes rather than tactical utilization.

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The idea behind Dodo Pizza success is its marketing strategy

Fyodor Ovchinnikov, the founder of Dodo Pizza, initially had the idea to create a pizzeria of an unusual format – total openness of the institution. All kitchens are equipped with web cameras, which allow everyone to observe the work of employees, make sure that the products are fresh and the cooking process is in compliance with sanitary standards.

There is no stained “We cook according to the classic Italian recipe”. The company is based on openness, and it is in everything – from the company’s blog to the table where the dough is kneaded. Interestingly, anyone if curious may request a free tour of the kitchen. This is the concept of business – open and honest.

Dodo IS

One important element of the brand “Dodo Pizza” is Dodo IS, the browser system, which is the “core” of the company’s work. In short, it works as follows. Orders are accepted through a call center, website, or mobile app, and then immediately redistributed to the tablets installed in the kitchen. The employee who took the order notes the start time and the end time of the work. The program also keeps track of performance indicators-starting with the courier service, ending with the warehouse.

The specialized Dodo IS program is much better than the ones more universal, as everything in it is tailored for certain business processes. Firstly, because the efficiency in working with retail operations through such a program is much higher. But most importantly, such software is an excellent tool for franchise control. Dodo IS system manages the entire business as a whole while also increases the efficiency of individual pizzerias.

Franchise

There have been and apparently will be many willing to open their cafe under the brand. The conditions to do so include 350,000 rubles fee + VAT ($4700), monthly royalty fee that varies from 3.5% to 5% + VAT, and minimum budget that account for 6,000,000 rubles ($80700) with the profit expectations from 15% to 25% and a payback period in about 3 years. A cafe can be opened in one of three formats: a delivery, a family pizzeria, or a city pizzeria, according to a raise in the starting budget.

Dodo Pizza provides pieces of training for future partners, franchisers. The training lasts for 1 month in the training center “Dodo Pizza” that is located in Syktyvkar. During this time a franchisor delves into the principles of working in the network, is engaged in drawing up a business plan, and also practices resolving specially simulated critical situations. This helps to gain experience and become a competent manager in the future.

Quality check-up

Quality control plays an important role in the food industry. For this reason, Dodo Pizza continuously conducting secret check-ups with secret buyers coming to each pizzeria 8 times a month and evaluating service according to 118 criteria. Their reports are checked, and based on the information received, the management rates the pizzerias. The bests of all are awarded bonuses. If the pizzeria systematically gets low ratings, and owners do not will to improve and deliberately neglect the requirements then the pizzeria is closed.

Concluding, it’s not only the strategy that matters when opening a pizzeria. Ultimately, it’s the taste of pizza. The kitchens of “Dodo Pizza” have strict standards for working with dough and pastries, the allowed error is only 3 grams and 1 degree, the frozen dough is never used. While talent and skill play their roles, in the kitchen everything is based on formulas and standards. Taste is equally behind the success of a brand in the food industry.

Plan 333 and IPO 2024

Under the so-called “Plan 333“, global strategy for the next three years, Dodo targets to have at least 100 coffee shops and shawarma shops opened by 2024, mainly in Russia, China, and the UK. The prediction is that the international market share will account for at least 10% of total revenue.

Dodo also plans to issue ruble-denominated bonds on the Moscow Exchange, to raise funds and scale up the business. Most importantly, it plans to go public in early 2024. The company expects to raise between $50 million and $100 million.

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But after experiencing the worst financial losses in decades, the oil companies appear humbled by the pandemic-caused oil economic shortages. The oil companies these days are not aware of their future being under public and governmental pressure which are looking to focus on sustainability, curb greenhouse gas emissions and achieve the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees.

When in the past oil industry faced difficulties, it was able to cut costs and recover, postpone investments and wait for an upturn. However, this time can be different on account of deep changes in energy demand economics and in the global society priorities itself.

National oil companies

State-owned oil companies are about to invest $400 billion in projects that are profoundly incompatible with the Paris Agreement. NOCs now produces half of the world’s oil and gas; at this rate, they alone will account for most of the amount that the oil industry as a whole could extract if the world is to keep emissions under the Paris Agreement. However, NOCs are planning to further increase the production, if demand recovers after the pandemic.

This future will affect various NOCs differently. Some, notably in the Middle East, are in a relatively good position due to their access to cheaply exploited reserves. Others are in worse positions. NOCs in Angola, Colombia, and Mexico have high project costs, and their new potential projects wouldn’t survive a dramatic shift away from fossil fuels.

In countries like Nigeria, Russia, and Turkmenistan, the amounts that NOCs are investing in oil projects exceed governments’ annual health budgets. But, unlike international oil companies like Shell or ExxonMobil, national oil companies do not face much pressure from shareholders and analysts. Shortly, many NOC leaders will likely seek to maintain their market positions rather than changing business plans.

Pandemic crisis

The pandemic has destroyed almost a third of global oil demand, hitting the oil sector already at the peak of its crisis. Big oil companies lost billions of dollars in 2020 because of the pandemic and face multiple questions about how to adapt to climate change and regulations. The pandemic significantly reduced the demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel as countries locked down and people stayed home for months.

Exxon Mobil, BP, and Shell reported losses for the year equal to $22.4 billion, $20.3 billion, and $21.7 billion respectively. After the losses on the value of their oil assets and dismissing tens of thousands of workers in 2020, Big Oil may never again dominate the global economy as they did just a decade ago.

Transition

Investors have already partially turned away from the sector even before the pandemic crisis, being motivated by fears that the demand growth is weakening due to the rise of ethical, social, and governance-led debates. The industry is slowly and dispersively transitioning to a future dominated by cleaner energy. For example, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and other companies are investing resources in wind and solar energy while reducing oil extraction.

In terms of transportation, which consumes over a quarter of natural resources in general, electric vehicles may dominate by 2030. Due to major improvements in the cost and efficiency of electro-mobile batteries, the cost of ownership for electric vehicles could drop sharply, pressuring the price of fuel for internal combustion engines. Alongside, analysts say, that carbon taxes could increase prices of oil by $3 to $8 per barrel of oil, changing the costs for the machine industry as well as for consumers. The changes within the sector appear to be decisive. For example, General Motors announced it aims to go away with internal combustion engines and sell only electric cars by 2035.

Nonetheless, assuming that once the pandemic is over and the economy will recover, oil demand will relatively come back. The developing countries in an attempt for industrialization will especially account for fossil fuels, while national oil companies alongside invest in extraction projects, keeping the industry well alive for some decades. But the fact that the world takes action on climate change suggests that oil demand sooner or later will start going down, in fact, it might have peaked already.

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