By Maria-Diandra Opre
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As it was seen with 2020, one can hardly predict what the future might bring. With the hope that 2021 will be more predictable, this article briefly illustrates the main expectations in politics and economics in the UK, EU and USA. Even though the development and large scale distribution of vaccines have sparked some optimism across the globe, COVID-19 will continue to shape the course of events in 2021, as lingering effects from the beginning of the pandemic will still affect people’s lives. In the EU, the early unprecedented national responses of limiting free movement to prevent the spread of COVID-19 highlights the heterogeneity and lack of synchronization among the European states.
After intense negotiations, the member states have agreed to a recovery package of roughly 750 billion. Nonetheless, the EU Commission estimates that the European economy will reach the pre-pandemic level only in 2022. As the economic aids and packages provided by the states will stop soon, unemployment rates are expected to peak this year, reaching roughly 9.4 per cent. Thus, 2021 is expected to be a transition year towards the full recovery predicted in 2022.
Some prevalent threats for the EU’s integrity are represented by the increasing populist movements and the questionable conduct of the pandemic in several states. Over the years Euroskepticism has redirected from pursuing the abandonment of the union, choosing instead to focus on dominating the political apparatus to impede measures which lead to an ever closing UNION. The management of COVID-19 Poland and Hungary raised alarming signals of human rights and freedoms breaches. Furthermore, the Euroskeptic movement might gain momentum in 2021. Elections will take place in two important members of the European block: Germany and The Netherlands.
In the new political climate of an independent UK after the finalization of Brexit, the domestic situation does not look so well for the first months of 2021. Already affected by the new more infectious strain of COVID-19, UK will witness new surges in coronavirus infections and ongoing restrictions, with the possibility of becoming more stringent. In comparison with other leading economies, OECD predicts that the UK will face a more tedious recovery: by the end of 2021, UK’s GDP is projected at 6.4 per cent smaller rate than it was in the last quarter of 2019.
Throughout the past year, the English government has provided extensive financial support for the citizens affected by the pandemic. Nevertheless, Laurence Boone, OECD’s chief economist, notes that “A striking feature of the outlook is the absence of correlation between the extent of financial support and the resulting economic performance”. In other words, some critical points arise from whether the support provided was efficiently managed.
Fueled by Brexit’s finalization, persistent Nationalist sentiments will grow in Scotland, a strong advocate of remaining in the EU. The political fragmentation of the UK regarding the EU is visible from the heterogenous agreements within the agreed deal: London has agreed to grant Northern Ireland a different position in the Brexit deal. Moreover, With the visible anti-Westminster tendencies rising in Scotland and Northern Ireland, some claim that Boris Johnson might underestimate the growing resentment in Wales, which might fuel the separatist movement’s strength.
One of the most significant political events is the new Democratic presence in USA’s White House. In a deeply polarized USA, Biden will encounter difficulties in passing relevant reforms past the Senate as it is compounded by a majority of Republicans. However, the elect-president will have more freedom to act in foreign policy. One of his major initiatives is rejoining the Paris Climate deal on climate change, which was officially withdrawn by Trump in November 2020.
Furthermore, Biden pledges to end of the strongest symbols of Trump’s legacy, through halting the construction of the US-Mexico wall. Another important aspect of Biden’s future plans are represented by a more coherent strategy of tackling the coronavirus pandemic in the USA, through enacting stringent protective measures and incorporating sound scientific advice in the management of the crisis. Furthermore, Biden has made it clear that he prioritizes the strengthening of US-EU relationships. This might mean that the bilateral relations with the UK might be on a secondary plan, however, no clear stance was expressed on this issue.
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